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Introductory Statistics: Conditional Probability and Multiplication Rules
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What is conditional probability?
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What is conditional probability?
Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred, denoted as
P(F|E)
.
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What is conditional probability?
Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred, denoted as
P(F|E)
.
How do you calculate the probability of two dependent events both occurring?
Use the general multiplication rule:
P(E and F) = P(E) · P(F|E)
.
What is the multiplication rule for independent events?
For independent events E and F,
P(E and F) = P(E) · P(F)
.
What is the difference between independent and dependent events?
Events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other; dependent if it does.
What does it mean if two events are disjoint?
Disjoint events have no outcomes in common; if one occurs, the other cannot.
Are disjoint events independent?
No, disjoint events are not independent because knowing one occurs changes the probability of the other to zero.
What is the complement rule in probability?
The complement of event E, denoted
E
c
, is the event that E does not occur, and
P(E) + P(E
c
) = 1
.
How do you calculate the probability of 'at least one' event occurring?
Use the complement rule:
P(at least one) = 1 - P(none)
.
What is the probability that a randomly selected person is a man from the given table?
P(man) = (Number of men) / (Total people) = (1+2) / (1+7+2+3) = 3/13.
What is the probability that a randomly selected person is a male doctor from the table?
P(male doctor) = Number of male doctors / Total people = 2 / 13.
How do you find the probability that a person is a nurse or a doctor?
Add the probabilities of nurses and doctors: P(nurse or doctor) = (1+7+2+3)/13 = 13/13 = 1.
How do you find the probability that a person is a nurse or a woman?
Add probabilities of nurses and women, subtract overlap: P(nurse or woman) = P(nurse) + P(woman) - P(nurse and woman).
What is the probability that a person who is a nurse is a man?
P(man | nurse) = Number of male nurses / Total nurses = 1 / (1+7) = 1/8.
What is the probability that a person is a doctor given that the person is a woman?
P(doctor | woman) = Number of female doctors / Total women = 3 / (7+3) = 3/10.
What is the probability that a person is a woman given that the person is a doctor?
P(woman | doctor) = Number of female doctors / Total doctors = 3 / (2+3) = 3/5.
What is the range of any probability value?
The probability of any event must be between 0 and 1 inclusive:
0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
.
What must the sum of probabilities in a sample space equal?
The sum of probabilities of all outcomes in the sample space must equal 1.
What is the formula for the probability of the union of two events E and F if they are not disjoint?
P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F) - P(E and F).
What is the formula for the probability of the union of two disjoint events E and F?
If E and F are disjoint, then P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F).
What is the 5% guideline for assuming independence in sampling?
If the sample size is no more than 5% of the population, treat selections as independent even if sampling without replacement.