뒤로Economic Uncertainty and Its Measurement in Macroeconomics
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이 집합의 용어 (23)
Risk is calculable and insurable, while uncertainty involves unpredictable events without known probabilities.
Uncertainty is central to economic behavior, influenced by psychological factors called animal spirits affecting entrepreneurs' decisions.
Leads to caution, wait-and-see attitudes, reluctance to invest, reduced employment, and increased saving, weakening overall demand.
Expectations of professionals guide public sentiment; accurate expectations are crucial to avoid wrong decisions and stabilize the economy.
Investment strategy to reduce risk of existing positions by offsetting potential losses with gains in another market using derivatives like futures and options.
Assets that gain or remain stable during uncertainty, e.g., gold or government bonds, aimed at capital protection and long-term value preservation.
Investors increase demand for hedge and safe haven investments to manage risk, influencing exchange rates, interest rates, and capital allocation.
Survey-based, financial market-based, and media-based methods, each capturing different aspects of uncertainty.
Provide subjective expectations from consumers, companies, and experts but can be biased and have time delays.
Monthly survey measuring consumer sentiment and expectations about economic conditions in the US.
Monthly survey of German companies assessing current business situation and expectations for the next six months.
Collects expert forecasts on inflation, unemployment, and growth; considered a gold standard for economic forecasts.
The CBOE Volatility Index measures expected 30-day volatility of the US stock market based on option prices.
Weighted sum of option prices over a range of strike prices, excluding equities, to estimate market volatility.
Analyze frequency of uncertainty-related terms in news articles to capture real-time perceptions of economic and political uncertainty.
Measures uncertainty from economic policy by counting articles containing economic, political, and uncertainty terms; used nationally and globally.
Measures global economic and political uncertainty using IMF reports, allowing cross-country and temporal comparisons.
Text-based index measuring risk from political tensions, conflicts, terrorism, and instability based on newspaper coverage.
Indices like EPU, VIX, and financial uncertainty measures show significant correlations, reflecting interconnected uncertainty aspects.
Caused supply disruptions, demand falls, increased uncertainty, reduced investment, and government deficits, leading to a global output decline.
Global output fell sharply in 2020 with varied country impacts; recovery scenarios depend on vaccination progress and virus mutations.
Covid-19 caused sharper output declines than the 2008 financial crisis; monetary policy helped avoid deflationary spirals in 2008.
Unemployment rose sharply during Covid-19 but with different dynamics compared to the prolonged Great Depression period.