뒤로International Macroeconomics: Financial, Monetary, and Economic Crises
이 집합의 용어 (28)
Crises are extraordinary events distinct from normal economic cycles. Not every financial crisis is an economic crisis, but financial crises often trigger or coincide with negative real-economic developments.
Price increases not justified by fundamentals, often identified only ex post. Speculation can cause financial crises but also supports market functioning.
Crises affecting many economies simultaneously, often originating in dominant countries like the USA, spreading through trade, financial ties, or investor assumptions.
Primarily agricultural and food crises, irregular occurrence, influenced by climate, with limited impact of sovereign defaults and speculation on business cycles.
Inflation crisis: inflation ≥ 20% per year; hyperinflation: inflation rate exceeds 500% per year.
Devaluation of at least 30% against the US dollar and 10 percentage points higher than the previous year, often linked with inflation and interest rate rises.
Include insolvency, repudiation of debts, and debt restructuring. Distinction between domestic and foreign debt crises.
Run on banks causing bankruptcy, merger, or state takeover; or significant state assistance to troubled institutions without runs.
Financial support ≥ 5% of deposits, restructuring costs ≥ 3% of GDP, nationalizations, guarantees, securities purchases ≥ 5% of GDP, deposit freezes or bank closures.
Twin crisis: banking crisis and currency crisis within ±1 year; triple crisis adds sovereign debt crisis in the same period.
Use economic and financial indicators to predict crises, aiming to reduce risk and enable preventive policy measures.
High probability of crisis prediction, early warning before crisis onset, and consistent accuracy of warnings.
Production level, real exchange rate deviation, banking crisis indicators, exports, monetary aggregates to reserves ratio, inflation, share prices.
Deregulation of financial markets, low central bank interest rates, rising household debt, and financial product innovations.
Allowed commercial banks to engage in investment banking activities, increasing risk-taking and moral hazard in the financial system.
Systemically important banks take excessive risks expecting government bailouts to avoid collapse.
Traders incentivized by profits with limited loss responsibility, leading to high-risk behavior and systemic risk.
Underestimation of real estate price declines, collateral price sensitivity, bank exposure, and counterparty insurance defaults.
Markets can fail; fiscal policy is necessary to combat recessions and liquidity traps where monetary policy is limited.
Markets are generally efficient; government intervention often worsens outcomes; bubbles are hard to identify due to unknown fundamentals.
Economic agents anticipate future taxes from government spending, reducing current consumption and limiting expansionary effects.
Stress tests, countercyclical capital buffers, limits on foreign currency debt, and lending restrictions to ensure financial system stability.
Fixed exchange rate with fiscal deficits financed by money creation leads to reserve depletion and speculative attacks causing devaluation.
Devaluation is a rational government response to speculative pressure, influenced by private sector expectations and costs of defending currency.
Focus on financial crises involving moral hazard and contagion rather than currency crises alone.
High war debts, reparations, money printing to finance government debt, and monetary system upheavals led to hyperinflation in the 1920s.
Creditors and money holders lost; debtors, real asset owners, and the state benefited; currency speculation was widespread.
Monetary policy maintained gold parity without money supply increase; fiscal policy was restrictive, worsening unemployment and deflation.