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Ch. 4 - Probability
Triola - Elementary Statistics 14th Edition
Triola14th EditionElementary StatisticsISBN: 9780137366446당신이 사용하는 게 아니라요?교과서 변경
4장, 문제 4.2.31c

Surge Protectors Refer to the accompanying figure showing surge protectors p and q used to protect an expensive television. If there is a surge in the voltage, the surge protector reduces it to a safe level. Assume that each surge protector has a 0.985 probability of working correctly when a voltage surge occurs.


c. Which arrangement should be used for better protection?

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Step 1: Understand the configurations. In the series configuration, both surge protectors p and q must work correctly for the television to be protected. In the parallel configuration, the television is protected as long as at least one of the surge protectors works correctly.
Step 2: Calculate the probability of protection for the series configuration. Since both surge protectors must work, the probability of protection is the product of their individual probabilities: P(series) = P(p) × P(q). Using the given probability of 0.985 for each surge protector, this becomes P(series) = 0.985 × 0.985.
Step 3: Calculate the probability of protection for the parallel configuration. In this case, the television is protected if at least one surge protector works. The probability of failure for each surge protector is 1 - 0.985 = 0.015. The probability of both failing simultaneously is P(failure) = P(p fails) × P(q fails) = 0.015 × 0.015. The probability of protection is then P(parallel) = 1 - P(failure).
Step 4: Compare the probabilities of protection for the series and parallel configurations. The configuration with the higher probability of protection provides better safety for the television.
Step 5: Based on the calculations, determine which configuration (series or parallel) should be used for better protection. The parallel configuration typically offers better protection because it reduces the risk of complete failure by allowing either surge protector to function independently.

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Probability of Success

In this context, the probability of success refers to the likelihood that each surge protector will function correctly during a voltage surge. Given that each surge protector has a 0.985 probability of working, this high probability indicates that they are generally reliable. Understanding this concept is crucial for evaluating the overall effectiveness of the surge protectors in protecting the television.
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Introduction to Probability

Series vs. Parallel Configuration

The arrangement of surge protectors can significantly impact their effectiveness. In a series configuration, both protectors must work for the TV to be protected, which can reduce overall reliability. In contrast, a parallel configuration allows for either protector to function independently, enhancing the likelihood that at least one will work during a surge, thus providing better protection.
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04:13
Creating Time-Series Graphs

Overall System Reliability

Overall system reliability is a measure of the probability that the entire system (in this case, the surge protectors) will perform successfully. For two independent components, the reliability of the system can be calculated differently for series and parallel configurations. In a series setup, the overall reliability is the product of the individual probabilities, while in parallel, it is calculated using the formula: 1 - (1 - p)(1 - q), which typically results in a higher reliability.
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Introduction to the Hypergeometric Distribution Example 1
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In Exercises 21–24, use these results from the “1-Panel-THC” test for marijuana use, which is provided by the company Drug Test Success: Among 143 subjects with positive test results, there are 24 false positive (incorrect) results; among 157 negative results, there are 3 false negative (incorrect) results. (Hint: Construct a table similar to Table 4-1.)



Testing for Marijuana Use


c. What is the probability that a randomly selected subject had a true negative result?

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c. How many random selections are required to be absolutely sure that the card works because it is inserted correctly?

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In Exercises 21-28, find the probability and answer the questions.


X-Linked Genetic Disease Men have XY (or YX) chromosomes and women have XX chromosomes. X-linked recessive genetic diseases (such as juvenile retinoschisis) occur when there is a defective X chromosome that occurs without a paired X chromosome that is not defective. In the following, represent a defective X chromosome with lowercase x, so a child with the xY or Yx pair of chromosomes will have the disease and a child with XX or XY or YX or xX or Xx will not have the disease. Each parent contributes one of the chromosomes to the child.


c. If a mother has one defective x chromosome and one good X chromosome and the father has good XY chromosomes, what is the probability that a son will inherit the disease?

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b. Based on the poll results, what is the probability of randomly selecting an adult who is willing to donate organs after death?


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Phase I of a Clinical Trial A clinical test on humans of a new drug is normally done in three phases. Phase I is conducted with a relatively small number of healthy volunteers. For example, a phase I test of bexarotene involved only 14 subjects. Assume that we want to treat 14 healthy humans with this new drug and we have 16 suitable volunteers available.


c. If 14 subjects are randomly selected and treated at the same time, what is the probability of selecting the 14 youngest subjects?

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Kentucky Derby Odds When the horse Justify won the 144th Kentucky Derby, a \$2 bet on a Justify win resulted in a winning ticket worth \(7.80.


c. If the payoff odds were the actual odds found in part (c), what would be the worth of a \)2 win ticket after the Justify win?

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