Create a short verbal model predicting how a person’s BMI and lean body mass would be used to estimate expected BAC after a specified dose. Which components must be incorporated to make the model accurate?

Base the model solely on reported tolerance and drinking history rather than physiological measures because tolerance fully predicts BAC trajectories.

Use stomach pH and skin fold thickness exclusively as these determine direct dermal and gastric sequestration of ethanol which are the primary drivers of BAC.

Include total body water estimated from lean body mass (higher LBM → larger volume of distribution), actual alcohol dose in grams, sex-based adjustments for gastric ADH, and timing of consumption to predict peak BAC.

Include only BMI and the type of alcohol consumed because lean mass and dose are negligible determinants once BMI is known.