Which statement best describes the causal pathway from caloric excess to obesity and increased chronic disease risk?

Caloric intake greater than energy expenditure leads to storage of excess energy as adipose tissue, causing weight gain and metabolic changes that increase risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease

Caloric excess immediately converts dietary protein into insulin, causing direct heart failure without weight gain

Obesity is caused solely by genetic factors and caloric intake has no influence on chronic disease development

Eating more calories than burned reduces fat mass and therefore paradoxically lowers chronic disease risk