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Ch. 3 - Probability
Larson - Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World 8th Edition
Larson8th EditionElementary Statistics: Picturing the WorldISBN: 9780137493470Non è quello che usi tu?Cambia libro di testo
Capitolo 3, Problema 3.2.26c

Using the Multiplication Rule In Exercises 19-32, use the Multiplication Rule.
26. Worst President In a sample of 1500 adult U.S. citizens, 690 said that Donald Trump was the worst president in U.S. history. Three adult U.S. citizens are selected at random.
(Adapted from YouGov)
c. Find the probability that at most two of the three adult U.S. citizens say that Donald Trump was the worst president in U.S. history.

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Step 1: Define the problem using the given data. Let the probability that an adult U.S. citizen says Donald Trump was the worst president be p = 690/1500. Calculate this probability.
Step 2: Recognize that this is a binomial probability problem because there are a fixed number of trials (n = 3), two possible outcomes (success or failure), and the probability of success (p) is constant for each trial.
Step 3: Use the binomial probability formula to calculate the probability of at most two successes. The formula is P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k), where 'n choose k' is the binomial coefficient. Here, you need to calculate P(X = 0), P(X = 1), and P(X = 2).
Step 4: Add the probabilities for P(X = 0), P(X = 1), and P(X = 2) to find the total probability of at most two successes. This is expressed as P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2).
Step 5: Simplify each term in the summation using the binomial coefficient and the given probability p. Then, sum the results to find the final probability of at most two successes.

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Multiplication Rule of Probability

The Multiplication Rule of Probability states that the probability of two or more independent events occurring together is the product of their individual probabilities. In this context, it helps calculate the likelihood of multiple citizens expressing the same opinion about Donald Trump being the worst president, by multiplying the probabilities of each citizen's response.
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05:54
Probability of Multiple Independent Events

Binomial Distribution

The Binomial Distribution is a probability distribution that models the number of successes in a fixed number of independent Bernoulli trials, each with the same probability of success. In this scenario, it can be used to determine the probability of 0, 1, or 2 citizens out of 3 selecting Trump as the worst president, given the proportion of the population that holds this view.
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03:28
Mean & Standard Deviation of Binomial Distribution

At Most Probability

The term 'at most' refers to the maximum number of successes in a given scenario. In this question, finding the probability that at most two out of three citizens say Trump is the worst president involves calculating the probabilities for 0, 1, and 2 successes and summing these probabilities to get the total likelihood.
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Percorso guidato
5:37
Introduction to Probability
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