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Ch. 3 - Probability
Larson - Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World 8th Edition
Larson8th EditionElementary Statistics: Picturing the WorldISBN: 9780137493470Not the one you use?Change textbook
Chapter 3, Problem 3.T.2c

A person's building access code is their first and last initials and four digits.
You know a person's first name only, and you know that the last digit is odd. What is the probability of guessing this person's code on the first try?

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Step 1: Understand the structure of the access code. The code consists of two initials (first and last initials) and four digits. The last digit is specified to be odd.
Step 2: Determine the number of possible combinations for the initials. Each initial can be one of 26 letters (assuming the English alphabet), so there are 26 × 26 = 676 possible combinations for the initials.
Step 3: Analyze the four-digit portion of the code. Since the last digit is odd, it can only be one of the odd digits: {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}, which gives 5 choices for the last digit. The other three digits can each be any digit from 0 to 9, providing 10 choices per digit.
Step 4: Calculate the total number of possible codes. Multiply the number of combinations for the initials (676) by the number of combinations for the digits. For the digits, calculate 10 × 10 × 10 × 5 (three unrestricted digits and one odd digit).
Step 5: Compute the probability of guessing the code correctly on the first try. Since there is only one correct code, the probability is 1 divided by the total number of possible codes calculated in Step 4.

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Key Concepts

Here are the essential concepts you must grasp in order to answer the question correctly.

Probability

Probability is a measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur, expressed as a number between 0 and 1. In this context, it helps determine the chance of correctly guessing a specific building access code based on the known parameters. The formula for probability is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
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Combinatorics

Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics dealing with combinations and arrangements of objects. In this scenario, it is essential for calculating the total number of possible access codes based on the initials and the four-digit number. Understanding how to count combinations will help in determining the total outcomes when guessing the code.

Digits and Odd Numbers

In this problem, the last digit of the access code must be an odd number, which limits the choices for that digit. The odd digits are 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9, providing five options. Recognizing the constraints on the digits is crucial for accurately calculating the total number of possible codes and, consequently, the probability of guessing correctly.
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Related Practice
Textbook Question

Your dorm enters 15 out of 65 plastic numbered ducks in a duck race. The ducks are all dumped into a stream and drift to the finish line. What is the probability that three of your dorm's ducks finish first, second, and third?

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Textbook Question

7. There are 16 students giving final presentations in your history course.

b. Presentation subjects are based on the units of the course. Unit B is covered by three students, Unit C is covered by five students, and Units A and D are each covered by four students. How many presentation orders are possible when presentations on

the same unit are indistinguishable from each other?

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Textbook Question

4. The table on the left shows the secondary school student enrollment levels (in thousands by grade) in Oklahoma and Texas schools in a recent year. (Source: U.S. Nation

for Education Statistics)

A student in one of the indicated grades and states is randomly selected. Find the probability of selecting a student who

d. is enrolled in Texas, given that the student is in twelfth grade.

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Textbook Question

You work in the security department of a bank’s website. To access their accounts, customers of the bank must create an 8-digit password. It is your job to determine the password requirements for these accounts. Security guidelines state that for the website to be secure, the probability that an 8-digit password is guessed on one try must be less than 1/60^8, assuming all passwords are equally likely.

Your job is to use the probability techniques you have learned in this chapter to decide what requirements a customer must meet when choosing a password, including what sets of characters are allowed, so that the website is secure according to the security guidelines.

3. For additional security, each customer creates a 5-digit PIN (personal identification number). The table on the right shows the 10 most commonly chosen 5-digit PINs. From the table, you can see that more than a third of all 5-digit PINs could be guessed by trying these 10 numbers. To discourage customers from using predictable PINs, you consider prohibiting PINs that use the same digit more than once.

b. Would you decide to prohibit PINs that use the same digit more than once? Explain.

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Textbook Question

4. The table on the left shows the secondary school student enrollment levels (in thousands by grade) in Oklahoma and Texas schools in a recent year. (Source: U.S. Nation

for Education Statistics)

A student in one of the indicated grades and states is randomly selected. Find the probability of selecting a student who

a. is in ninth grade.

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Textbook Question

You work in the security department of a bank’s website. To access their accounts, customers of the bank must create an 8-digit password. It is your job to determine the password requirements for these accounts. Security guidelines state that for the website to be secure, the probability that an 8-digit password is guessed on one try must be less than 1/60^8, assuming all passwords are equally likely.

Your job is to use the probability techniques you have learned in this chapter to decide what requirements a customer must meet when choosing a password, including what sets of characters are allowed, so that the website is secure according to the security guidelines.

2. Answering the Question

a. What password requirements would you set? What characters would be allowed?

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