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Ch. 4 - Probability
Triola - Elementary Statistics 14th Edition
Triola14th EditionElementary StatisticsISBN: 9780137366446Not the one you use?Change textbook
Chapter 4, Problem 4.2.21b

In Exercises 21–24, use these results from the “1-Panel-THC” test for marijuana use, which is provided by the company Drug Test Success: Among 143 subjects with positive test results, there are 24 false positive (incorrect) results; among 157 negative results, there are 3 false negative (incorrect) results. (Hint: Construct a table similar to Table 4-1.)




Testing for Marijuana Use


b. How many of the subjects had a true negative result?

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Step 1: Understand the problem. We are tasked with finding the number of subjects who had a true negative result. A true negative result occurs when the test correctly identifies a subject as not using marijuana.
Step 2: Identify the given information. From the problem, we know: (1) There are 157 negative test results in total, (2) Among these, 3 are false negatives (incorrect results).
Step 3: Recall the relationship between total negative results, false negatives, and true negatives. The formula is: Total Negative Results = True Negatives + False Negatives.
Step 4: Rearrange the formula to solve for True Negatives. This gives: True Negatives = Total Negative Results - False Negatives.
Step 5: Substitute the given values into the formula. Use the total negative results (157) and the false negatives (3) to calculate the true negatives. This will give you the number of subjects with a true negative result.

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Key Concepts

Here are the essential concepts you must grasp in order to answer the question correctly.

True Negative

A true negative result occurs when a test correctly identifies a subject as not having the condition being tested for. In the context of drug testing, it means that the test accurately indicates that a person does not use marijuana when they actually do not. Understanding true negatives is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of a test and calculating its accuracy.
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Step 3: Get P-Value

False Positive and False Negative

False positives and false negatives are critical concepts in diagnostic testing. A false positive occurs when a test incorrectly indicates the presence of a condition (e.g., a positive drug test for someone who does not use drugs), while a false negative indicates the absence of a condition when it is actually present. These concepts help in assessing the reliability of a test and understanding its implications in real-world scenarios.
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Correlation Coefficient

Contingency Table

A contingency table is a statistical tool used to summarize the relationship between two categorical variables. In this case, it can be used to organize the results of the drug test, showing the counts of true positives, true negatives, false positives, and false negatives. This visual representation aids in calculating various statistics, such as sensitivity and specificity, which are essential for evaluating the test's performance.
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Related Practice
Textbook Question

In Exercises 21-28, find the probability and answer the questions.


Genetics: Eye Color Each of two parents has the genotype brown/blue, which consists of the pair of alleles that determine eye color, and each parent contributes one of those alleles to a child. Assume that if the child has at least one brown allele, that color will dominate and the eyes will be brown. (The actual determination of eye color is more complicated than that.)


b. What is the probability that a child of these parents will have the blue/blue genotype?

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Textbook Question

Alarm Clock Life Hack Each of us must sometimes wake up early for something really important, such as a final exam, job interview, or an early flight. (Professional golfer Jim Furyk was disqualified from a tournament when his cellphone lost power and he overslept.) Assume that a battery-powered alarm clock has a 0.005 probability of failure, a smartphone alarm clock has a 0.052 probability of failure, and an electric alarm clock has a 0.001 probability of failure.


b. If you use a battery-powered alarm clock and a smartphone alarm clock, what is the probability that they both fail? What is the probability that both of them do not fail?

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Textbook Question

In Exercises 21-28, find the probability and answer the questions.


Guessing Birthdays On their first date, Kelly asks Mike to guess the date of her birth, not including the year.


b. Would it be unlikely for him to guess correctly on his first try?

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Textbook Question

In Exercises 9–20, use the data in the following table, which lists survey results from high school drivers at least 16 years of age (based on data from “Texting While Driving and Other Risky Motor Vehicle Behaviors Among U.S. High School Students,” by O’Malley, Shults, and Eaton, Pediatrics, Vol. 131, No. 6). Assume that subjects are randomly selected from those included in the table. Hint: Be very careful to read the question correctly.

Drinking and Driving If two of the high school drivers are randomly selected, find the probability that they both drove when drinking alcohol.

b. Assume that the selections are made without replacement. Are the events independent?

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Textbook Question

In Exercises 29 and 30, find the probabilities and indicate when the “5% guideline for cumbersome calculations” is used.



Medical Helicopters In a study of helicopter usage and patient survival, results were obtained from 47,637 patients transported by helicopter and 111,874 patients transported by ground (based on data from “Association Between Helicopter vs Ground Emergency Medical Services and Survival for Adults with Major Trauma,” by Galvagno et al., Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 307, No. 15).


b. If 5 of the subjects in the study are randomly selected without replacement, what is the probability that all of them were transported by helicopter?

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Textbook Question

Births in the United States In the United States, the true probability of a baby being a boy is 0.512 (based on the data available at this writing). For a family having three children, find the following.


b. The probability that all three children are boys.

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