Understanding China's Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities, 1st edition
Published by FT Press (July 12th 2011) - Copyright © 2012
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The Investor’s Guide to China’s Economic Statistics: How to Discover, Interpret, and Profit from Them
Which numbers can you trust…and what do they really mean? Detailed coverage of 35 key indicators—and their impact on equity, commodity, and currency markets
This expert guide to China’s economic statistics gives you the up-to-the-minute knowledge you need to invest more profitably in China. The only book of its kind, it fills a pent-up demand for tradable information on China’s growth, inflation, investment, consumption, labor market, and financial data.
Tom Orlik identifies the indicators that matter most—ranging from gross domestic product to real estate construction, imports and exports to household spending and inflation. He explains everything investors need to know about their reliability—and drills down to reveal their specific implications for the markets.
Unprecedented in its clarity, depth, and insight, Understanding China’s Economic Indicators is an essential resource for every professional and individual investor seeking profits in the world’s fastest-growing, fastest-changing economy.
China moves the markets. Making the right investment decisions means understanding China’s economy–and that means understanding China’s economic indicators. In this book, leading economist and market analyst Tom Orlik introduces 35 of China’s most significant economic data series, explaining why each one matters, how it is collected and computed, and how it impacts equity, commodity, and currency markets.
Orlik helps investors make sense of data on everything from Chinese GDP growth to inflation, unemployment, bond yields, electricity production, and aircraft passenger numbers. Every indicator is clearly described, along with a practical discussion of its investment implications.
This information is indispensable for anyone considering investments in China, or in the global markets that are moved by China’s data. Never
before has it been organized so effectively–or presented with such clarity and insight.
Finding the wheat and filtering out the chaff
Identifying the statistics that are worth your time and trust
Overheated growth or sustainable development
Measuring China’s output and its impact on the markets
Income, savings, and household consumption
Are China’s low-wage consumers daring to spend?
From T-shirts to iPads: exports, imports, and trade surpluses
Shifting trade balances and their impact on exchange rates
Trends in lending, money supply, and growth
Recognizing turning points in economic growth and equity markets
Table of contents
About the Author xiii
CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1
The Crush 1
How Reliable Are China’s Economic Statistics? 3
A Month in China’s Economic Data 6
Waiting for Release of the Data—or Not 7
A Year in China’s Economic Data 8
How This Book Works 11
CHAPTER 2 National Output 13
Gross Domestic Product 13
Industrial Value Added 24
Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure 31
Freight and Passenger Traffic 36
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing’s Purchasing Managers Index 40
HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index 45
Market News International China Business Survey 48
National Bureau of Statistics Leading Economic Indicator 53
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator 58
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Composite Leading Indicator 62
CHAPTER 3 Investment and Real Estate 67
Fixed Asset Investment 67
Real Estate Prices, Investment, Sales, and Construction 75
China Real Estate Index System 84
CHAPTER 4 Household Sector 89
Retail Sales 89
Urban and Rural Household Surveys 94
National Bureau of Statistics Consumer Confidence Index 101
INTAGE China Consumer Sentiment Survey 105
CHAPTER 5 External Sector 109
U.S. Import Price Index 121
Foreign Direct Investment 125
Balance of Payments 130
Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves 136
Treasury International Capital System 142
CHAPTER 6 Labor Markets 149
Urban Wages 149
Public Employment Services Labor Market Supply-and-Demand Situation 162
CHAPTER 7 Prices 169
Consumer Price Index 169
Indices of Urban Residents’ Confidence on Income and Price Level
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