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Understanding China's Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities, 1st edition

  • Thomas Orlik

Published by FT Press (July 12th 2011) - Copyright © 2012

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Understanding China's Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities

ISBN-13: 9780132620192

Includes: Hardcover

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The Investor’s Guide to China’s Economic Statistics: How to Discover, Interpret, and Profit from Them


Which numbers can you trust…and what do they really mean? Detailed coverage of 35 key indicators—and their impact on equity, commodity, and currency markets


This expert guide to China’s economic statistics gives you the up-to-the-minute knowledge you need to invest more profitably in China. The only book of its kind, it fills a pent-up demand for tradable information on China’s growth, inflation, investment, consumption, labor market, and financial data.


Tom Orlik identifies the indicators that matter most—ranging from gross domestic product to real estate construction, imports and exports to household spending and inflation. He explains everything investors need to know about their reliability—and drills down to reveal their specific implications for the markets.


Unprecedented in its clarity, depth, and insight, Understanding China’s Economic Indicators is an essential resource for every professional and individual investor seeking profits in the world’s fastest-growing, fastest-changing economy.


China moves the markets. Making the right investment decisions means understanding China’s economy–and that means understanding China’s economic indicators. In this book, leading economist and market analyst Tom Orlik introduces 35 of China’s most significant economic data series, explaining why each one matters, how it is collected and computed, and how it impacts equity, commodity, and currency markets.


Orlik helps investors make sense of data on everything from Chinese GDP growth to inflation, unemployment, bond yields, electricity production, and aircraft passenger numbers. Every indicator is clearly described, along with a practical discussion of its investment implications.


This information is indispensable for anyone considering investments in China, or in the global markets that are moved by China’s data. Never
before has it been organized so effectively–or presented with such clarity and insight.


Finding the wheat and filtering out the chaff

Identifying the statistics that are worth your time and trust


Overheated growth or sustainable development

Measuring China’s output and its impact on the markets


Income, savings, and household consumption

Are China’s low-wage consumers daring to spend?


From T-shirts to iPads: exports, imports, and trade surpluses

Shifting trade balances and their impact on exchange rates


Trends in lending, money supply, and growth

Recognizing turning points in economic growth and equity markets

Table of contents

Acknowledgments     x

About the Author     xiii

CHAPTER 1 Introduction     1

The Crush     1

How Reliable Are China’s Economic Statistics?      3

A Month in China’s Economic Data     6

Waiting for Release of the Data—or Not     7

A Year in China’s Economic Data     8

How This Book Works     11

CHAPTER 2 National Output     13

Gross Domestic Product     13

Industrial Value Added     24

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure     31

Freight and Passenger Traffic     36

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing’s Purchasing Managers Index     40

HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index     45

Market News International China Business Survey     48

National Bureau of Statistics Leading Economic Indicator     53

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator     58

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Composite Leading Indicator     62

CHAPTER 3 Investment and Real Estate     67

Fixed Asset Investment     67

Real Estate Prices, Investment, Sales, and Construction     75

China Real Estate Index System     84

CHAPTER 4 Household Sector     89

Retail Sales     89

Urban and Rural Household Surveys     94

National Bureau of Statistics Consumer Confidence Index     101

INTAGE China Consumer Sentiment Survey     105

CHAPTER 5 External Sector     109

Trade     109

U.S. Import Price Index     121

Foreign Direct Investment     125

Balance of Payments     130

Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves     136

Treasury International Capital System     142

CHAPTER 6 Labor Markets     149

Urban Wages     149

Unemployment     158

Public Employment Services Labor Market Supply-and-Demand Situation     162

CHAPTER 7 Prices     169

Consumer Price Index     169

Indices of Urban Residents’ Confidence on Income and Price Level    

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