Art of Decisions, The: How to Manage in an Uncertain World, 1st edition
Published by FT Press (September 23rd 2009) - Copyright © 2010
1st edition
Overview
The Fast-Paced, Fun-to-Read Guide to Making Better Decisions!
How much information do you really need to make a business decision? Why don’t past winners keep on winning? When should you fold your hand, and when should you press on? In The Art of Decisions, Chris Blake reveals the amazing hidden realities beneath human decision making–and helps you optimize every decision you make.
Blake begins by exploding the #1 myth of decision making: the idea that if you have enough knowledge, you can engineer away all risk and make a rational, objective decision that’s nearly guaranteed to succeed. Next, Blake turns to the decision-making process itself, teaching better ways to make decisions in a world full of uncertainty, randomness, and tough luck.
Drawing on the secrets of psychology, poker, and probability, you’ll learn how to identify and overcome biases and errors that constantly creep into the decision-making process. You’ll discover the power and pitfalls of intuition in familiar and unfamiliar environments and learn "rules of thumb" drawn from fields as diverse as gambling and computer programming.
You’re human. You’ll never be perfect. But if you want to be right more often, when it matters most, this book will get you there.
• Decision-making lessons from Texas Hold’em
What to do about the risks and randomness you can’t eliminate
• Follow your instinct or follow the rules?
When to use your intuition--and when to doubt it
• Know when it’s time to decide
How to know when you know enough
• Make better decisions in unfamiliar environments
Hire a guide or make a map?
Table of contents
Acknowledgments ix
Introduction xi
Chapter 1 The Anatomy of Decisions 1
Chapter 2 Bad Things Sometimes Happen to the Good Guys 11
Chapter 3 In Search of the Perfect Decision? 23
Chapter 4 I Know I Am Right (but I Am Not Sure Why) 43
Chapter 5 Calling Off the Search 57
Chapter 6 Investing, Risk, and Poker 69
Chapter 7 Rules of Thumb: Part 1--Risk and Investing 93
Chapter 8 Deciding Close to Home 103
Chapter 9 Deciding Far from Home 121
Chapter 10 Overconfidence and the Entrepreneur 135
Chapter 11 The Trouble with Winners and Experts 151
Chapter 12 Map Making and the Planning Fallacy 165
Chapter 13 Fear, Greed, and Risk Taking 179
Chapter 14 The Dragon's Den Syndrome 195
Chapter 15 Rules of Thumb: Part 2--Fighting to Win 211
Chapter 16 The Art of Decision Making 219
Glossary of Poker Terms Used in the Book 229
Bibliography 231
Index 237
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