Art of Decisions, The: How to Manage in an Uncertain World, 1st edition

The Fast-Paced, Fun-to-Read Guide to Making Better Decisions!

How much information do you really need to make a business decision? Why don’t past winners keep on winning? When should you fold your hand, and when should you press on? In The Art of Decisions, Chris Blake reveals the amazing hidden realities beneath human decision making–and helps you optimize every decision you make.

Blake begins by exploding the #1 myth of decision making: the idea that if you have enough knowledge, you can engineer away all risk and make a rational, objective decision that’s nearly guaranteed to succeed. Next, Blake turns to the decision-making process itself, teaching better ways to make decisions in a world full of uncertainty, randomness, and tough luck.

Drawing on the secrets of psychology, poker, and probability, you’ll learn how to identify and overcome biases and errors that constantly creep into the decision-making process. You’ll discover the power and pitfalls of intuition in familiar and unfamiliar environments and learn "rules of thumb" drawn from fields as diverse as gambling and computer programming.

You’re human. You’ll never be perfect. But if you want to be right more often, when it matters most, this book will get you there.

• Decision-making lessons from Texas Hold’em

What to do about the risks and randomness you can’t eliminate

• Follow your instinct or follow the rules?

When to use your intuition--and when to doubt it

• Know when it’s time to decide

How to know when you know enough

• Make better decisions in unfamiliar environments

Hire a guide or make a map?