Understanding China's Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities (paperback)
©2012 |FT Press | Available
©2012 |FT Press | Available
As China has emerged as a central player in the global economy, more and more investors are seeking profitable opportunities there. To choose the right investments, it's crucial to understand China's economic environment—and that means finding, interpreting, and utilizing China's growing base of economic indicators. In this book, leading economist and market analyst Thomas M. Orlik introduces 35 of China's most significant economic statistics. Orlik explains why each indicator matters, how it is collected and computed, and its impact on equity, commodity, and currency markets.
Orlik helps investors make sense of data on everything from Chinese GDP growth to inflation, unemployment, bond yields, electricity production, and aircraft passenger numbers. He draws on the best information supplied by the Chinese government's statistical agency, ministries, and industry associations, as well as private sources. Each indicator is clearly described, along with a practical discussion of its implications for investors.
First complete guide to China's economic statistics: how to find, interpret, and use them to invest more profitably.
About the Author xiii
CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1
The Crush 1
How Reliable Are China’s Economic Statistics? 3
A Month in China’s Economic Data 6
Waiting for Release of the Data—or Not 7
A Year in China’s Economic Data 8
How This Book Works 11
CHAPTER 2 National Output 13
Gross Domestic Product 13
Industrial Value Added 24
Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure 31
Freight and Passenger Traffic 36
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing’s Purchasing Managers Index 40
HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index 45
Market News International China Business Survey 48
National Bureau of Statistics Leading Economic Indicator 53
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator 58
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Composite Leading Indicator 62
CHAPTER 3 Investment and Real Estate 67
Fixed Asset Investment 67
Real Estate Prices, Investment, Sales, and Construction 75
China Real Estate Index System 84
CHAPTER 4 Household Sector 89
Retail Sales 89
Urban and Rural Household Surveys 94
National Bureau of Statistics Consumer Confidence Index 101
INTAGE China Consumer Sentiment Survey 105
CHAPTER 5 External Sector 109
U.S. Import Price Index 121
Foreign Direct Investment 125
Balance of Payments 130
Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves 136
Treasury International Capital System 142
CHAPTER 6 Labor Markets 149
Urban Wages 149
Public Employment Services Labor Market Supply-and-Demand Situation 162
CHAPTER 7 Prices 169
Consumer Price Index 169
Indices of Urban Residents’ Confidence on Income and Price Level 177
Producer Price Index 181
Bond Market Yield Curve 185
CHAPTER 8 Financial Indicators 193
Sources and Uses of Funds of Financial Institutions 193
Money Supply 200
Nonperforming Loans 204
China Foreign Exchange Trading System Central Parities 209
Hong Kong Banking System Yuan Deposits 215
People’s Bank of China Reports 218
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Tom Orlik is a China correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, where he writes the “Heard on the Street” column. Prior to joining the Journal, he worked for Stone & McCarthy Research Associates as an economist, briefing investors on China’s macroeconomic data. Before coming to China, Orlik worked for the British Treasury, including as a speechwriter for the Deputy Finance Minister, advisor to the UK Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund, and on secondment to the European Commission in Brussels. He has a Master’s in Public Policy from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and a Bachelor’s in English from University College London. His work on the Chinese economy has been published by the Far Eastern Economic Review, the Economist Intelligence Unit, and the South China Morning Post. The head of China’s National Bureau of Statistics Ma Jiantang made Orlik’s essay on the quality of China’s economic data required reading for the entire staff of the statistical system.
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