Northern Ireland has participated in PISA every cycle since 2000, and, participated in TIMSS 2011, 2015 and 2019 at the younger age group only – though not in TIMSS 2023, due to low participation numbers. A representative sample of year 6 pupils, their teachers and Principals, will again take part in TIMSS 2027, this time on computers for the first time in Northern Ireland, and schools are already taking part in the ‘Field Trial’, trialling items before the main study. The TIMSS study assesses pupil attainment in mathematics and science in ways that are close to Northern Ireland curriculum goals. It also includes questionnaires for pupils, teachers and Principals that ask about pupils’ experiences in and resources for learning mathematics and science, including their use of digital tools for such purposes. Further, the questionnaires asks pupils their attitudes to mathematics and science learning. But what can these responses really tell us?

There is overlap between performance items in successive cycles of TIMSS (‘trend items’) and also between successive questionnaires. We can therefore track patterns of performance, experiences and attitudes over time – and also analyse those by pupil characteristic such as socio-economic background or gender. The International nature of the study makes it possible to see how both attainment and responses to common questionnaire items compare across countries, although interpretation of those comparisons is not always straightforward!

The Department of Education in Northern Ireland has appointed our team at UCL Institute of Education to lead the analysis of TIMSS 2027 data, compiling comparative information and then reporting initial findings; the actual data will be collected from schools by Pearson UK. In 2019, TIMSS data from Northern Ireland showed that average performance of 9/10 year olds in mathematics and science was high continuing the pattern of high performance first seen in 2011. That was particularly true in mathematics, where they were significantly outperformed by pupils in only five of the 58 participating countries. There was no significant difference in attainment by gender, though there was a comparatively wide spread of attainment, particularly in mathematics. Lower attainment was associated with fewer resources, with poor nutrition, and with lack of sleep.

What, then, might be the key questions for Northern Ireland from the 2027 TIMSS data? Those will include:

• How has pupil attainment in mathematics and science developed since 2019, particularly given the hiatus of the pandemic in 2020-2022?
• How does that compare with performance in other countries whose pupils Northern Ireland’s year 6 pupils might reasonably be expected to compare?
• Is attainment by gender still comparable, and how has the spread of attainment developed?
• To what extent are socio-economic associated variables such as nutrition and sleep deprivation aligned with performance?
• What are pupils’ current attitudes to mathematics and science, including their confidence in those areas of the curriculum?

The answers to those questions are important in the light of the under-researched impact of pandemic experiences of young children in the target cohort (those pupils will have been aged 2-4 during the pandemic years); also, because of the arguably increasing importance of confident engagement with mathematics and science for our pupils’ future achievements. The findings will act as an important source of international evidence which can help inform the new Northern Ireland curriculum which we understand will be implemented on a phased basis from September 2027. We look forward with interest to working with the Department to interpret the relevant data.

By Professor Jennie Golding and Dr Rachel Marks