When a nationwide lockdown was announced in March 2020, it was hard to imagine quite how disruptive it would be. What most of us thought would be a short-term inconvenience – a temporary blip – ran into weeks and then months. The impact on schools was obviously huge: overnight, the entire system of education was turned upside down and teachers had to adapt quickly to the ‘new normal’. For many children, the kitchen table became the classroom and the teacher a disembodied face on a screen; parents struggled to balance the demands of work with the learning needs of their children. Even now we have not fully calculated the cost in terms of so-called ‘learning loss’. 

The consequences of absent assessment

To establish the extent of the impact on learning caused by this protracted period of disruption, we need reliable assessment data. Unavoidably, however, nearly all forms of statutory assessment were cancelled over the past two years. This means we have no data from the foundation stage profile, key stage 1 assessments, key stage 2 tests, GCSEs, and A Levels. Interestingly, the only statutory assessment administered in state schools in England in 2019/20 and 2020/21 was the phonics screening check, but even this was delayed and shifted to the Autumn term of the following year. Because the DfE did not provide a new version of the check, schools were instructed to choose a previous year’s test. This combination of timing and choice means that the results of these assessments are incomparable with those of previous years and the DfE have not, as of yet, made the national figures public.

Another consequence of this two-year hiatus has been the delayed roll out of new forms of assessments. After a stuttering start, the reception baseline – following a trial, pilot, and ‘early adopter’ years – was finally rolled out across primary schools in September 2021. This will provide the baseline for future progress measures but not until 2028 when the current cohort of reception pupils reaches the end of key stage 2. The multiplication tables check, planned to begin in summer 2020, was also delayed and became statutory in June 2022. Despite the suggestion that this would be a low stakes assessment, we now know that the results will be made available to Ofsted and it will no doubt become part of the accountability framework, much like the phonics check. And finally, the final removal of the remaining P scales and their replacement with the Engagement Model takes effect this year. This applies only to pupils who are not engaged in subject specific study and working below the pre-key stage standards, and will therefore mainly affect special schools, but it is nevertheless an important development.

Schools have therefore had two years without statutory assessment and the associated accountability measures used to monitor school performance. The risk is, therefore, that data has taken a backseat and that schools have become accustomed to its absence.

The return of data-driven results

Reports of the death of data are greatly exaggerated: all forms of statutory assessment are back this year, and the measures will follow. Despite the promise of another year without ‘league tables’ – for primary schools at least – this autumn will see the return of performance measures in the Analyse School Performance system and Ofsted’s Inspection Data Summary Report. The slumbering grizzly bear of accountability is beginning to stir from its hibernation, and with the DfE certain to maintain the expected standards set in previous years, it is highly likely that many schools will see a drop in their results.

In the absence of statutory assessment, it is perhaps of little surprise that an increasing number of schools turned to standardised tests to plug the gap, to provide national reference to their internal assessments, calculate the extent of any learning deficit, and to measure progress and closing of gaps as pupils returned to the classroom. Research carried out for the DfE by the Education Policy Institute and Renaissance Learning (1), based on the results of Star online adaptive tests, reveals that progress slowed throughout 2020/21 and overall attainment was below the levels predicted from the trajectories of same-aged pupils in previous years. By the end of the 2020/21 spring term, primary-aged pupils had experienced a total ‘learning loss’ of 2.2 months in reading and 3.4 months in maths when compared with the results of previous cohorts unaffected by lockdowns. These are averages: pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds and those in areas of higher deprivation were more adversely affected.

Whilst learning loss is a misnomer – pupils still made progress – scores are in many cases significantly lower than expected and, despite notable improvements in both reading and maths in the summer term, gaps are likely to take some time to close, especially for the most disadvantaged pupils. Evidently, many children are going to require additional support for some time to come to address the gaps that have arisen during the past two years.