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Policy Watch is our regular policy update service, covering national and international developments in the world of education. We try to keep things simple, sharing the latest news and information with you through weekly updates, monthly summaries, papers and events.
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As head of UK education policy at Pearson, Steve’s been running the Policy Watch service for almost 20 years. He’ll keep you informed on all things education, along with the rest of his subscribers – there were more than 10,000 at the last count!
The postbags at the Treasury were no doubt fuller than usual last weekend as consultation closed for responses to this year’s Spending Review.
The drill was set out in July when the Chancellor launched the Review, calling for a further £20bn of savings by 2019/20, setting out a number of guiding principles and asking for views. For unprotected areas of public spending such as FE including 16-19 provision and HE, this is an anxious time, particularly as stories continue to circulate about impending cuts. FE and HE have both been busy submitting their thoughts to the Treasury; here’s a summary.
The view from HE
In their submissions, both the Russell Group and Universities UK have stressed the important contribution universities make to the economy, the need to ring-fence science and research and the importance of international students. Particular priorities listed include:
Increase the tuition fee cap in line with inflation (Russell Group)
Respond to concerns about a decline in p/t provision (UUK)
Increase capital investment in teaching (both)
Increase funding for high cost STEM subjects (both)
Continue to ring-fence science, beef up funding for research and increase funding through the dual support system (both)
Support and build on business innovation through the HE Innovation Fund (both)
Ensure UKHE remains attractive to international students (both)
Full details can be found in respective submissions from the Russell Group and from UUK.
The view from FE
The Association of Colleges (AoC) have highlighted issues around 16-18 funding, the apprenticeship levy and longer-term financial planning among other points in their list of ten recommendations to the Treasury. In summary, these include:
Tackling concerns about 16-18 funding by proposing that schools and colleges merge sixth form provision which falls below a benchmark of 250 students, scrapping VAT on sixth form provision and putting 16-18 funding on a par with that of 14-16 yr olds
Introducing more stable three-year funding allocations for colleges and developing an outcome formula to be used in locally devolved adult provision
Introducing specific initiatives to help recruitment of English and maths specialists
Extending the loan system to 19-24 yr olds
Setting the apprenticeship levy at 0.5% of payroll of large organisations
Rationalising the number of agencies.
The view from adult and community learning
NIACE and the Centre for Inclusion have also put in a submission reflecting some of the above points but also calling among other things for a new Apprenticeship Quality and Access Fund, Personal Career Accounts and a single funding agency for post-19 loans.
The publication this week of further guidance on the area-based review process for post-16 provision moved the re-structuring of the college sector a step closer.
A step rather than a leap because a lot of the detail about precisely which institutions are involved and how it’ll work at a local level have still to be determined but it has answered a number of questions as follows:
Pretty much the same as originally indicated in the July announcement: cutting out duplication and waste, matching local and learner needs better, developing higher-level specialist provision, or in two words ‘efficiency’ and ‘focus.’ There are three differences to the July announcement: a greater emphasis on the role of technology both in teaching and management; the importance being attached to IoTs (Institutes of Technology,) “one per LEP area;” and, inevitably, the need to keep an eye on the Spending Review…’living within your means’ is the new catchphrase.
Who’s going to lead the reviews?
The local steering group comprising chairs of governors, local Commissioners, LEP, LA and agency reps, remains the lead body reporting into a National Area Review Steering Group. More interesting perhaps is how other interested parties engage: Ofsted and the funding agencies for instance who are expected to provide specialist intelligence, the government which has said it will be hands off unless it has concerns, and other providers such as HE and training providers.
What about schools?
Still not fully clear. Regional Schools Commissioners have the brief to ‘engage’ with school sixth forms and as the guidance makes clear, ‘other providers’ can opt in and ‘all post-16 providers will be in scope’ at least for the initial phase. In fairness, the Dept is carrying out its review of how new school sixth forms are created and is pushing the case for greater collaboration.
What will trigger a review?
Either a risk alert from one of the Commissioners or a funding agency which will set the process in motion or alternatively, a local area itself can come forward with its own review proposals.
How long will a review last?
Typically 3-4 months, with the whole national programme itself due to complete in spring 2017.
Colleges in parts of East Anglia and the City of Nottingham have been ‘done’ first in trial form; next up are colleges in Birmingham and Solihull, Greater Manchester and Sheffield City. The National Steering Group will publish a schedule of who’s been done and who’s next in due course.
The local area concerned…government finance only “as a last resort”.
For those that missed them, whether by design or not, here’s a quick reminder of some of the main education stories from over the summer hols, August in particular.
The main story over the summer
Given that August by tradition is results month, the main story/ies inevitably concerned exam and assessment results in some form. The month began with stories of Ministerial concern about aspects of the exam board system and ended with the same Ministers heralding a stable set of GCSE and A’ level results and an upbeat set of KS2 results. In between many familiar arguments about the exam system in general and specific trends in subjects, regions and so on were aired but perhaps the most notable feature, picked up in some of the headlines, was the emerging impact of government policies. ‘Gove’s generation’ as an Institute of Ed blog labelled this year’s entrants faced a number of changes instigated by the previous Education Secretary including those to early entry, resits and assessment, much of which showed in changing trends such as the drop in entries by 15 year olds and rise in entries for EBacc subjects for 16 yr olds and English/maths GCSE resits for 17 yr olds. More of course is to come as new GCSEs and de-coupled AS levels come in over the next few years. Maths had another bumper entry year at both GCSE and A’ level, languages remain a concern but this year’s big noise is Computing with a surge in entries at both GCSE and A’ level. Finally, one unusual fact from the BBC’s Education correspondent, Sean Coughlan: “there will be more people starting university this autumn than were getting five good GCSEs a couple of decades ago.”
The biggest debate over the summer
Arguably there’ve been two, both familiar.
First the long-term future of the GCSE exam. The GCSE has faced criticism for much of its 27 years, indeed the chief executive of Ofqual was said to have expressed amazement at the extent of this when she took over a few years back, and it faced a further barrage again this summer: ‘out of date,’ ‘ready to wither on the vine’ and ‘killing our young people;’ just a selection of comments from the boss of the CBI, a former Education Secretary and former headmaster respectively. The case against is threefold: they’re archaic, they expensive both in terms of time and cost and they don’t prepare kids very well for the future. In defence, as Tim Oates argued, most countries have, if not exams at age 16 certainly “high-stakes assessment,” they help ensure a qualitative bar of achievement for future progression and they provide a focal point for learning. There the argument rests, perhaps for another year with issues like Sir Mike Tomlinson’s Core + model for exams at age 16 still hanging in the air.
The other debate this summer has been about the numbers going to university, up 3% to 47% at the last count with the student numbers cap lifted this year. Should we continue to encourage more people to go to university or should we be encouraging more to follow a skilled or professional pathway, what’s best for the individual, what’s best for the country? As HEFCE and others have argued, few would doubt the benefits that higher ed can bring and certainly the graduate premium, the return on investment, remains high but as both the Edge Foundation and the CIPD have argued in reports this summer, there are concerns that a rise in graduate numbers has not been reflected in a rise in high skilled jobs and productivity. At root, as Professor Alison Wolf argued recently is the question of whether university should be seen as a route to a job or as a wider learning and development experience …or both?
The most worrying story
Inevitably about funding and again there’ve been two.
First the Sixth Form Colleges Association who published their annual funding impact survey on the eve of A’ level results day showing that a lot of Colleges were having to drop courses because of funding cuts and as far as they could see, things were only going to get worse. 72 of the 93 Colleges responded and of those, 26 feared for their very future. Increases in pension and NI contributions, the imposition of the VAT burden and the imminent ending of formula protection funding all suggest that the Association is not crying wolf. There’s considerable sympathy for their position as the recent IPPR Spending Review Paper indicates but the government seems intent on using the area-based reviews, which may or may not prove any more favourable, to help resolve the situation.
Second, the Skills Funding Agency’s announcement at around the same time that they will have to clampdown on further qualification approvals for the remainder of the financial year for all bar a couple of categories of qualification: automatic approvals and those that qualify for 24+ Advanced Learning Loans. This is seen as a temporary measure and as the government regularly reminds us, there are a lot of qualifications on the stocks but it’s a sharp reminder of how tight things are at present.
The most significant speech of the summer
It was more of an article than a speech but David Cameron’s comment piece as his government reached its first 100 days watermark on 15 August was significant for three reasons. First, it re-emphasised the message that however small its majority, the government intends to keep up the pace: “we will not waste a second in getting on with the job.” Things may be different once a new Labour leader is selected on 12 Sept but for the moment, it’s all go. Second, as if we needed reminding, the economy remains the b-all and end-all. And third, perhaps surprisingly, education remains a high priority with the Prime Minister for instance pushing the case for Academies and Free Schools.
The most important policy paper of the summer
Any number stand out here including the Sutton Trust’s report on pay differentials for privately educated graduates, Cambridge assessment’s research into the difficulties in making exam predictions, QAA’s response to the Quality Assessment Review, the Children’s Society Good Children’s Report and Policy Exchange’s Paper on a levy on schools for GCSE English and maths resits in FE. But given the government’s priority being attached to them, the levy consultation and accompanying announcements about apprenticeships is perhaps the most important in terms of future policy impact. The downside is that the consultation raises more questions than answers about for instance which employers would fall in scope or not, about whether there should be a limit to how much an employer’s account could be topped up and how long they should have to use it and whether it will enable quality training or quick and dirty. The levy as Julian Gravatt at the AoC said is “just a tool to encourage training, investment and a focus on skills” but it could be a very important one and it’s one that needs to be got right.
The most noticeable survey of the summer
Again there’ve been a number over the summer including the annual National Student Satisfaction Survey, The Motor Industry Institute survey let alone the Sixth Form Colleges and CIPD Labour Market surveys already mentioned but the one whose results may run for some time is the ASCL (Association of School and College Leaders) survey about the EBacc. The government intends that pupils starting secondary school this year will work towards the EBacc subjects at GCSE; critics feel this is prescriptive, not suitable for all pupils and want more flexibility over how it’s applied. In their survey, ASCL found that as many as 87% of respondents opposed the requirement in its current form. We may not have heard the last.
With the government passing its first 100 days last month, seemingly intent on keeping up the pace, it looks like we’re heading for another busy autumn.
Here’s a few things to look out for over the coming months for the world of education.
The main event here will come on 25 November when the Chancellor announces the outcomes of the 2015 Spending Review. Launched earlier this summer, the Review will determine dept budgets and spending priorities for a large chunk of this Parliament and so has the potential to be a defining moment. Individuals have been invited over the summer to submit their thoughts on where the review’s projected £20bn of savings should come from (the closing date is actually today) while individual Depts will no doubt continue their wrangling throughout the next few months.
At the last major such review in 2010, the BIS Dept went close to the wire before its budget details were settled and given some of the dire predictions that have been circulating this time, similar brinkmanship may be required again. Some decisions such as that on converting HE maintenance grants to loans from 2016 have already been taken while the Chancellor’s announcement in his Summer Budget that he was allowing a further year to move into surplus has taken some of the heat out of things. The Review should include some specifics such as an update on the future funding formula for schools, the apprenticeship levy for FE and the recent review of Business-University research in HE but if we weren’t already convinced, it will remind us that ‘turning round the economy’ remains the government’s top priority.
On the legislative front, three education-related Bills have already started their journey through Parliament with the Education Bill and its proposals about ‘coasting’ schools attracting the most comment. The other two up and running Bills are about to swap places, the Cities and Local Devolution Bill to the Commons and the Childcare Bill to the Lords. Three more Bills, on Enterprise, on Employment and Welfare, and on Immigration are due to be introduced shortly. Each will be worth watching. The Enterprise Bill will enshrine any new definition of apprenticeships, the Employment and Welfare Bill will endorse the government’s new earn and learn arrangements for young people while the Immigration Bill will include clauses on skilled worker visa arrangements and requisite levels of English for certain public facing jobs.
Elsewhere a number of Select Committees have important Inquiries lined up for this autumn. The Education Committee, who have both Nicky Morgan and Sir Michael Wilshaw up before it this month, will be looking into the role of Regional Schools Commissioners and Ofsted while the BIS Committee will be examining the government’s Productivity Plan. Two other Committee Inquiries worth noting include the Lords Social Mobility Committee which is investigating the transition into work for young people and where the call for evidence closes on 14 Sept. It’s due to consider evidence over the autumn before issuing a report next March. The other one is the Home Affairs Committee which will be looking into the Tier 2 Skilled Workers System for which a visa cap was introduced three years ago and where there are concerns about the impact on recruitment in many sectors. This Committee is calling for evidence submissions by 9 Sept.
Finally, the government will be keeping a close eye on a number of structural reforms as the year progresses. These include the further academisation of the schools system, the area-based reviews for FE and the lifting of the numbers cap in HE.
For schools, this autumn sees the first of three years of implementing new GCSEs, AS and A levels. This year’s batch includes the three big GCSEs, two English and one maths, and some 13 AS and A levels. At the same time, preparation work for the next two batches continues with consultation on the design and assessment of the 2017 ‘batch’ due to complete on 24 September. Also in September, the new Year 7 will start on their journey leading to the EBacc suite of GCSEs by 2018, initial trials of the National Reference Test are scheduled and the government report on Assessment without Levels is due for publication. The Rochford Review on assessment arrangements for pupils with low attainment incidentally reports in December.
Moving on, in mid-October, the government will for the first time publish provisional GCSE and other qualification performance data from this year’s exams including also for the first time provisional Attainment 8 data for schools that opted in early for this. Final performance tables will be published as normal in January with the aim of helping parents as they make secondary school choices although as some head teachers are planning to publish a rival set of performance tables at around the same time, it may all get a bit messy.
Other things schools may be looking out for this autumn include the new Ofsted inspection regime which begins this month, the three new teacher workload groups, (on marking, on planning and resources and on data management,) proposed recently by the Education Secretary, and further developments around the College for Teaching and the Teacher Professional Development and Behaviour Management Expert Groups.
Autumn is an important time for the FE sector where the annual Colleges Conference and Skills Show in November often provide a focal point for announcements and developments.
FE providers will be awaiting the Spending Review announcements in November with more trepidation than most given recent announcements although their first task is to submit, by the end of this month, their updated financial plans following the latest cuts announced in July. The other big challenge facing the sector is its potential reshaping in the wake of the area-based reviews. These are due to get under way this month and continue through to March 2017 and form part of the shift towards greater local determinism. Government involvement in these reviews will be “proportionate to the level of risk” but most people believe the opportunity will also be used to review financial, quality and other issues of post-16 provision.
Three other things for FE to look out for this autumn include further development work around apprenticeships with a new Delivery Board and target in place and two consultations, one on status now complete and the other on the Levy, completing next month. Second, the reform programme around Functional Skills along with the new post QCF qualification framework due to be in place from 1 October. And third, further consultation on outcome based success measures along with more destination and earnings data both due in the coming weeks.
For HE where the ramifications of the lifting of the cap on student numbers this year will no doubt be scrutinised for much of the autumn four issues stand out. First, quality assurance where a Green Paper on a Teaching Excellence Framework is promised and where consultation on HEFCE’s proposals on quality assurance closes on 18 Sept. Second, funding where institutions will be advised of their revised teaching grants in October, consultation on freezing the loan repayment threshold closes on 14 October and consultation on allowing some tuition fees to increase in line with inflation may follow. Third, further activity around validation arrangements, with the government likely to consider options for opening out the degree market to other ‘best’ providers. And fourth, visa issues where an Immigration Bill and Home Affairs Committee Inquiry are looming and a Migration Advisory Committee Report is due before the year end.
Two announcements, a big push on maths and a wave of concerns about impending shortages of teachers and school places; welcome to another education year.
The week summed up
The two announcements first. One was the Prime Minister’s ‘we will not waver’ pledge as he announced 18 new Free Schools as part of his government’s commitment to open 500 over the lifetime of this Parliament. Over 250 are already open and a further 50+ will join them this term and although the government considers them among other things as helping meet the demand for school places, they remain controversial. As the Prime Minister indicated in his comment piece last month, the government sees reform of the school system as one of its top priorities and if the tone of this latest announcement is anything to go by, it won’t ‘waver’ from this, criticisms or no.
The other announcement was more of a reminder from the DfE of the new Core Maths qualifications starting this month. More practical in nature and aimed at 16+ year olds with a grade C in maths, these new qualifications which have been trialled for some time and carry the same UCAS points as an AS, are intended to help encourage more young people to continue with maths in some form beyond GCSE. Only a fifth of young people at present do this and we have one of the poorest track records in this area of any OECD country, something the government is keen to tackle, although as the Association of Colleges and others have pointed out, whether we have enough trained maths teachers to teach the growing numbers is another matter.
Maths in fact has been very much in the news this week with the new GCSE maths also debuting, the government considering an extension of the Chinese style maths teaching programme, Scotland launching two new maths support groups, Carol Vorderman launching her 30-day maths online challenge, the charity National Numeracy hosting a ‘Week of Inspirational Maths’ and as indicated below, others pitching in with their own resources such as maths walks for schools and training resources for teachers in colleges. Just over 69% of entries gained a C grade or better in maths GCSE this year, up slightly on last year, but if my maths is correct still, it still leaves just over 30% without the standard level.
Finally shortages of teachers and of school places, an impending storm according to a Guardian headline last weekend (“Teacher shortages and rising pupil numbers put schools on edge of crisis”) and one which has gathered momentum as the new education year has started. It’s perhaps no surprise that the National Audit Office has announced it’ll investigate initial teacher training while the title of the latest London Councils report on school places, ‘Do the Maths,’ not only sticks with the maths theme but pretty much says it all.
Top headlines this week
‘Get out of your comfort zone state school leaders are told.’ (Monday)
‘Shortage of teachers set to spark new schools crisis. (Tuesday)
‘Cameron launches wave of free schools.’ (Wednesday)
‘Sixth formers to be offered courses in real life maths.’ (Thursday)
‘DfE starts overseas recruitment drive to combat teacher shortage.’ (Friday)
People/organisations in the news this week
The Prime Minister who promised to deliver two waves of new schools every year (March and Sept) from now to 2020 as he announced the first wave of new Free Schools under the current Parliament
The Business Secretary who pledged to introduce tougher sanctions for employers if they don’t pay the National Living Wage when it’s introduced next April
Nichola Sturgeon who prioritised education along with a return to standardised assessments at the end of primary and beginning of secondary education as she set out a new Programme for Government in Scotland
The think tank IPPR who called for 16-19 provision and science to be protected as it considered some of the options facing the Chancellor in his forthcoming Spending Review
Professor Sir David Greenaway, Vice-Chancellor at the University of Nottingham who has succeeded Sir David Eastwood as Chair of the Russell Group
Professor Hugh Brady who has succeeded Sir Eric Thomas as Vice-Chancellor and President at Bristol University
The Office of the Independent Adjudicator (OIA,) the HE students’ Ombudsman, whose remit from this month has been extended to cover HE courses in FE, Sixth Form Colleges and other recognised settings
Universities UK who published its latest (2013-2014) useful smorgasbord of facts and figures about UKHE with the increasing diversity of the sector one of the key messages
The HE Policy Institute who published a report comparing the German university system (which has scrapped tuition fees) with that in England
Middlesex University who will be rolling out its unique free course book scheme whereby students are able to download one free e-book per module over the duration of their course
The British Chambers of Commerce who is launching a new ‘Your Future’ careers programme with help from the Skills Funding Agency to help young people connect with employers
The car manufacturer Aston Martin who may be about to make many young people’s dreams come true as it announces plans to recruit ten new apprenticeships
The Education and Training Foundation who are launching their ‘training’ modules with schemes of work and resources to help teachers deliver GCSE English and maths resits
Core Maths, a post-16 practical option for those who already have a C in GCSE maths and who may need to keep their maths skills up, which comes in from this Sept. (Sample question: ‘Sam invests £1,000 in a savings account. The compound interest is fixed at 4% each year. How many years will it take for the value of the investment to exceed £2,000?’ Answer at bottom of this section)
Former government adviser Robert Hill whose latest blog highlights the rise in the number of multi-academy trusts
Better YCT, the new app launched by the UCL Institute of Education to help teach Mandarin to primary school pupils
Mobile phones, the subject of further debate this week about their use in schools with Sir Michael Wilshaw saying ‘ban them,’ Tom Bennett saying ‘they should be kept in their holsters until really necessary’ but the head of a leading school arguing that ‘they can’t disinvented so we should find ways to control them’
Henry VIII who emerged as the worst monarch in history in a poll conducted by the Historical Writers Association followed in order by Edward VIII, Kings John and Charles I
“On your way into school on the first day you spot a colleague? Do you hide, rush over, wave or engage in group moan?” One of a number of questions in The Guardian’s ‘Back to school’ teacher quiz
“The weather may have been a washout this month but the sun has certainly been shining on the British economy.” The CBI in its latest economic survey
“At present 3 children per average classroom has a diagnosable mental health problem with many more struggling with undiagnosed conditions such as anxiety.” The DfE’s new champion for children’s mental health on the importance of the task facing her
“In today’s world of comparable outcomes, performance relative to other schools is arguably more important than absolute performance.’ Education Datalab reflects on its trials in measuring progress in English and maths in Year 7
“Having given up fags a few years ago, I can confidently say smart phones are addictive and if we care about children at all, we should help create spaces for them where they aren’t allowed to chew on the thin black plastic teat of their iphones every heartbeat.” Behaviour ‘expert’ Tom Bennett on the lure of smart phones
“Assessment is a rickety vehicle driven too quickly over the wrong ground.” NAHT general secretary Russell Hobby on concerns about assessment at the start of a new year.
Number(s) of the week
2m. The number of adults studying and training in colleges according to AoC figures
8.4m. The number of students in schools, both public and private, in England who will be heading back to school this week and next
Just under 45%. The number of Free Schools opened in deprived communities according to data from Full Fact
6. The number of new FE colleges approved to offer provision for 14-16 yr olds from this year
25%. The number of parents who, according to research commissioned by Santander, are prepared to move house to ensure a place at a ‘good’ school
£23 an hour. The average cost of a private tutor as a survey by the Sutton Trust reveals more and more parents are turning to them
45%. The number of young people targeted daily by bullies according to research from the Diana Award charity.
Education Committee witness session with the Education Secretary (Wednesday)
New Labour leader announced (Saturday)
National Numeracy in conjunction with Stanford University hosts a ‘Week of Inspirational Maths,’ with lesson plans and resources at KS2/3 for participating schools (Monday-Friday)
And coming up: Pearson and the London Knowledge Lab are offering three high profile events with leading thinkers examining how smarter digital tools can improve learning. The first event will be hosted in London on 22 Sept with follow-up events on 15 Oct and 17 Nov. Details and booking here