After examining a graph that shows a positive correlation between ice cream sales and drowning incidents, which conclusion would make the most sense?

• A. There is no relationship between ice cream sales and drowning incidents.
• B. Drowning incidents cause people to buy more ice cream.
• C. The correlation may be due to an omitted variable, such as warmer weather increasing both ice cream sales and swimming activity.
• D. There is a causal relationship: eating ice cream causes drowning incidents.

Answer: (C)

Verified step by step guidance

1. Step 1: Understand the difference between correlation and causation. Correlation means two variables move together, but it does not imply that one causes the other.
2. Step 2: Identify the variables in the problem: ice cream sales and drowning incidents, which show a positive correlation on the graph.
3. Step 3: Consider possible explanations for the correlation. One explanation could be a direct causal relationship, but this is often unlikely without further evidence.
4. Step 4: Think about omitted variables—factors not shown in the graph that could influence both variables. For example, warmer weather could increase both ice cream sales and swimming activity, which in turn could increase drowning incidents.
5. Step 5: Conclude that the most reasonable interpretation is that the correlation is due to an omitted variable (like warmer weather) affecting both variables, rather than one causing the other.