Confidence intervals for variance require understanding the chi-square distribution, which differs significantly from the normal and t distributions used for means and proportions. Variance, denoted as σ², represents the square of the standard deviation and is a key parameter in statistics. To construct confidence intervals for variance, the chi-square distribution is essential because it provides the critical values needed for these intervals.
The chi-square distribution is distinctively asymmetric and right-skewed, unlike the symmetric t-distribution. This asymmetry means that critical values cannot be found by simply mirroring one tail’s value to the other. Instead, two separate critical values must be identified: one for the left tail (χ²L) and one for the right tail (χ²R). Both critical values depend on the degrees of freedom, which for variance estimation is calculated as n - 1, where n is the sample size.
When using chi-square tables, the areas referenced correspond to the right side of the critical value, not the left. For the right critical value χ²R, the area to the right is α/2, where α is the significance level (1 minus the confidence level). For the left critical value χ²L, the area to the right is 1 - α/2. This distinction is crucial because the chi-square distribution’s skewness means the left and right critical values are not symmetric.
For example, to find the critical values for a 95% confidence interval with a sample size of 31, first calculate α = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05. Then, α/2 = 0.025. The right critical value χ²R corresponds to the area 0.025 to its right, and the left critical value χ²L corresponds to the area 0.975 (1 - 0.025) to its right. With degrees of freedom 30 (31 - 1), the chi-square table lookup yields χ²R ≈ 46.98 and χ²L ≈ 16.79.
Understanding these critical values allows for the construction of confidence intervals for variance using the formula:
\[\left( \frac{(n-1)s^2}{\chi^2_R}, \frac{(n-1)s^2}{\chi^2_L} \right)\]where s² is the sample variance. This interval estimates the range within which the true population variance lies with the specified confidence level.
Mastering the chi-square distribution and its critical values is fundamental for accurate variance estimation and enhances statistical inference beyond means and proportions.