4. Probability

A weatherman states that the probability that it will rain tomorrow is 10%, or 0.1, & the probability that it will snow is 25%, or 0.25. What is the probability that it will not rain or snow?

When drawing a marble out of a bag of red, green, and yellow marbles 8 times, a red or yellow marble is drawn 6 times. What is the probability of drawing a green marble?

California Lottery Let A denote the event of placing a \$1 straight bet on the California Daily 4 lottery and winning. There are 10,000 different ways that you can select the four digits (with repetition allowed) in this lottery, and only one of those four-digit numbers will be the winner. What is the value of P(A)? What is the value of P(Abar)?

Laundry Symbols Based on a New Generation of Stains survey, 13% of U.S. adults know that the care-instruction symbol on clothing means that any bleach can be used. Find the probability of randomly selecting an adult in the U.S. who does not know that.

Notation When randomly selecting a new smartphone, D denotes the event that it has a manufacturing defect. What do P(D) and P(D) represent?

Women in Movies In a recent year, speaking characters in movies were 68.2% male. What is the probability of randomly selecting a character with a speaking part and getting a female? What should be the value of that probability?

Births in Vietnam In Vietnam, the probability of a baby being a boy is 0.526 (based on the data available at this writing). For a family having four children, find the following.

b. The probability that all four children are girls.

Denomination Effect

In Exercises 13–16, use the data in the following table. In an experiment to study the effects of using four quarters versus a \$1 bill, some college students were given four quarters and others were given a \$1 bill, and they could either keep the money or spend it on gum. The results are summarized in the table (based on data from “The Denomination Effect,” by Priya Raghubir and Joydeep Srivastava, Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 36).

Denomination Effect

b. Find the probability of randomly selecting a student who kept the money, given that the student was given four quarters.

Denomination Effect

In Exercises 13–16, use the data in the following table. In an experiment to study the effects of using four quarters versus a \$1 bill, some college students were given four quarters and others were given a \$1 bill, and they could either keep the money or spend it on gum. The results are summarized in the table (based on data from “The Denomination Effect,” by Priya Raghubir and Joydeep Srivastava, Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 36).

Denomination Effect

a. Find the probability of randomly selecting a student who spent the money, given that the student was given a \$1 bill.

Denomination Effect

In Exercises 13–16, use the data in the following table. In an experiment to study the effects of using four quarters versus a \$1 bill, some college students were given four quarters and others were given a \$1 bill, and they could either keep the money or spend it on gum. The results are summarized in the table (based on data from “The Denomination Effect,” by Priya Raghubir and Joydeep Srivastava, Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 36).

Denomination Effect

a. Find the probability of randomly selecting a student who spent the money, given that the student was given four quarters.

Denomination Effect

In Exercises 13–16, use the data in the following table. In an experiment to study the effects of using four quarters versus a \$1 bill, some college students were given four quarters and others were given a \$1 bill, and they could either keep the money or spend it on gum. The results are summarized in the table (based on data from “The Denomination Effect,” by Priya Raghubir and Joydeep Srivastava, Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 36).

Denomination Effect

a. Find the probability of randomly selecting a student who kept the money, given that the student was given four quarters.

In Exercises 17–20, refer to the accompanying table showing results from experiments conducted by researchers Charles R. Honts (Boise State University) and Gordon H. Barland (Department of Defense Polygraph Institute). In each case, it was known whether or not the subject lied, so the table indicates when the polygraph (lie detector) test was correct.

False Negative Find the probability of selecting a subject with a negative polygraph result, given that the subject lied. What would be an unfavorable consequence of this error?

Language: Complement of “At Least One” Let A=the event of getting at least one defective calculator when four are randomly selected with replacement from a batch. Write a statement describing event A

Blue Eyes Assume that 35% of us have blue eyes (based on a study by Dr. P. Soria at Indiana University).

b. Find the value of P(B_bar).

Redundancy in Computer Hard Drives The Seagate ST8000NM0055 hard drive has a 1.22% rate of failures in a year (based on data from Backblaze, Inc.). For the following, assume that all hard drives are that Seagate model.

a. If all of your computer data are stored on a hard disk drive with a copy stored on a second hard disk drive, what is the probability that during a year, you can avoid catastrophe with at least one working drive? Express the result with six decimal places.