In cognitive psychology, what is the best definition of hindsight bias?

• A. The tendency to focus on information that confirms one's preconceptions
• B. The tendency to attribute others' behavior to their disposition rather than the situation
• C. The tendency to overestimate the accuracy of one's knowledge and judgments
• D. The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it

Answer: (D)

Verified step by step guidance

1. Step 1: Understand that hindsight bias is a cognitive phenomenon related to how people perceive past events after knowing the outcome.
2. Step 2: Recognize that hindsight bias involves the tendency to believe, after an event has occurred, that the outcome was predictable or obvious all along.
3. Step 3: Differentiate hindsight bias from other cognitive biases such as confirmation bias (focusing on information that confirms preconceptions) and the fundamental attribution error (attributing behavior to disposition rather than situation).
4. Step 4: Note that hindsight bias specifically refers to overestimating one's ability to have predicted an event after the fact, not just overestimating knowledge in general.
5. Step 5: Conclude that the best definition of hindsight bias is 'the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it,' as it captures the essence of this bias in cognitive psychology.