In cognitive psychology, thinking that our premonitions correlate with actual events is an example of which cognitive bias?

• A. Anchoring bias
• B. Illusory correlation
• C. Availability heuristic
• D. Confirmation bias

Answer: (B)

Verified step by step guidance

1. Step 1: Understand the concept of cognitive biases, which are systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment, often leading to perceptual distortion or illogical interpretation.
2. Step 2: Identify the key idea in the problem: believing that premonitions (or predictions) correlate with actual events, even when there is no real connection.
3. Step 3: Review the definitions of the given options: Anchoring bias involves relying too heavily on the first piece of information encountered; Availability heuristic is judging the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind; Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions.
4. Step 4: Recognize that the belief in a correlation between premonitions and events, despite lack of evidence, fits the definition of Illusory correlation, which is perceiving a relationship between variables even when none exists.
5. Step 5: Conclude that the cognitive bias described in the problem is Illusory correlation, as it specifically refers to the false perception of a relationship between two unrelated events.