Pick 4 The Illinois Lottery’s PICK 4 game is similar to PICK 3, except a player must match a sequence of four repeatable numbers, ranging from 0 to 9, in exact order (for example, 5–8–5–1). With a single ticket, what is the probability of matching the four winning numbers?
Table of contents
- 1. Intro to Stats and Collecting Data1h 14m
- 2. Describing Data with Tables and Graphs1h 55m
- 3. Describing Data Numerically2h 5m
- 4. Probability2h 16m
- 5. Binomial Distribution & Discrete Random Variables3h 6m
- 6. Normal Distribution and Continuous Random Variables2h 11m
- 7. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Mean3h 23m
- Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean and Central Limit Theorem19m
- Distribution of Sample Mean - Excel23m
- Introduction to Confidence Intervals15m
- Confidence Intervals for Population Mean1h 18m
- Determining the Minimum Sample Size Required12m
- Finding Probabilities and T Critical Values - Excel28m
- Confidence Intervals for Population Means - Excel25m
- 8. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Proportion1h 25m
- 9. Hypothesis Testing for One Sample3h 29m
- 10. Hypothesis Testing for Two Samples4h 50m
- Two Proportions1h 13m
- Two Proportions Hypothesis Test - Excel28m
- Two Means - Unknown, Unequal Variance1h 3m
- Two Means - Unknown Variances Hypothesis Test - Excel12m
- Two Means - Unknown, Equal Variance15m
- Two Means - Unknown, Equal Variances Hypothesis Test - Excel9m
- Two Means - Known Variance12m
- Two Means - Sigma Known Hypothesis Test - Excel21m
- Two Means - Matched Pairs (Dependent Samples)42m
- Matched Pairs Hypothesis Test - Excel12m
- 11. Correlation1h 24m
- 12. Regression1h 50m
- 13. Chi-Square Tests & Goodness of Fit2h 21m
- 14. ANOVA1h 57m
4. Probability
Basic Concepts of Probability
Problem 5.3.11
Textbook Question
Flipping a Coin What is the probability of obtaining five heads in a row when flipping a fair coin? Interpret this probability.
Verified step by step guidance1
Identify the nature of the experiment: flipping a fair coin multiple times, where each flip is independent and has two possible outcomes (heads or tails) with equal probability of 0.5.
Recognize that the probability of getting heads on a single flip is \$0.5\( (or \)\frac{1}{2}$).
Since the flips are independent, the probability of getting heads on five consecutive flips is the product of the probabilities of each individual flip resulting in heads.
Write the probability of five heads in a row as \(\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^5\) or \$0.5^5$.
Interpret this probability as the likelihood of this specific sequence (five heads in a row) occurring in one set of five flips, which is a relatively small chance given the exponential decrease with each additional required head.
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Key Concepts
Here are the essential concepts you must grasp in order to answer the question correctly.
Probability of Independent Events
When events are independent, the probability of all occurring is the product of their individual probabilities. For coin flips, each flip does not affect the next, so the probability of multiple heads in a row is the product of the probability of heads on each flip.
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Probability of a Single Event
The probability of a single event is the likelihood it will occur, expressed as a number between 0 and 1. For a fair coin, the probability of landing heads on one flip is 0.5, since there are two equally likely outcomes.
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Probability of Multiple Independent Events
Interpreting Probability Values
Probability values indicate how likely an event is to happen. A probability close to 1 means the event is very likely, while a value near 0 means it is unlikely. Interpreting the probability of five heads in a row helps understand the rarity of this outcome.
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